According to NASA, any hopes of eventually travelling to and landing on Mars will be several decades in the future. In fact, they are much more focused on returning to the moon than such broader explorations. But that’s not the case when it comes to Elon Musk and his aspirations. Every so often, Musk provides a reassessment of the timetable for the future colonization of Mars. According to his most recent communications, he now expects a million people to live there within 20 years. That seems quite unrealistic by any measure, but it wouldn’t be the first time that Musk proves others wrong. He tends to have a knack for achieving the impossible, and despite the array of problems with inhabiting Mars, it’s his opinion that this will occur within his lifetime.
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Naturally, many things have to happen before colonization of Mars can become a reality. The problems of inhabiting Mars range from its incredibly harsh climate to the 140-million-mile journey to get there. Likewise, achieving a self-sustaining colony on the planet including one supporting human procreation could be unattainable. Understanding this, it’s puzzling why Musk would make such a bold prediction. In an effort to understand his reasoning, perhaps it’s helpful to dig a little deeper into his efforts in this regard. After all, each of his companies have been created to further his mission to Mars. It might therefore be worthwhile to explore Musk’s reasoning in a bit more detail. He may again know something the rest of us don’t.
A Bold Vision of the Colonization of Mars
To put things in perspective, NASA estimates any space travel to Mars would take about nine months one-way. That means any space vessel designed must be able to accommodate human needs for this extended journey. And of course, it should allow dozens of passengers given its length of travel. To date, such a vessel doesn’t exist, but that doesn’t mean Musk has been moving in that direction. SpaceX, Musk’s space exploration company, has plans to advance its space vessel to a 400-foot reusable rocket. Named Starship, this would hold up to 100 passengers and include not only living quarters but entertainment as well. SpaceX is already moving in this direction while meeting its contractual requirements with NASA to return to the moon. In this regard, the trip to the moon is simply a steppingstone to Musk’s larger vision.
In fact, it is precisely this same vision that has fueled Musk’s motivation for all of his existing companies. For example, The Boring Company, which creates tunneling machinery, was conceived to address Mar’s tough terrain. Tesla as well as the solar panel company under its charter was pursued with a long-term vision for Mars’ transportation and energy. Starlink, Musk’s satellite-based telecommunications systems, similarly would be essential for the colonization of mars. And even Musk’s recent purchase of Twitter/X was an experiment to examine how a citizen-led government by consensus might work. These are all very real problems with inhabiting Mars, and Musk has been pondering them nearly his entire life.
According to Musk, realizing colonization on Mars is not something way off into the future. He believes it is possible to overcome the problems with inhabiting Mars and have settlements within a couple of decades. In this regard, he already has teams designing small cities and residences for living on the planet. This includes exploring what building materials might be needed and what might be sourced there. His vision also includes securing resources for human existence and in addressing Mar’s intensely cold climate. Based on his vision, Musk foresees self-sustaining colonies on Mars with two to three decades. Given that it’s been decades since humans have returned to the moon, which is much closer, this prediction is profound. But then again, Musk has a tendency to make the impossible possible.
Overcoming Some Serious Challenges
Having a vision is one thing but making it a reality is another. In this regard, it’s worth exploring how Musk plans to tackle the problems with inhabiting Mars. Let’s start with Mars icy climate, barren terrain, and frequent dust storms. Interestingly, Musk has suggested that he would warm the planet through a series of thermonuclear explosions. This would not only elevate the temperature of the planet but also create artificial “suns.” These suns could then be used to generate energy via solar panels. Musk also plans to establish colonization of Mars in regions close to ice that can be turned into water. And of course, spacesuits and accessories to deal with Mars’ non-breathable air is essential. Designs and planning are already in the works to explore how these issues may be best addressed.
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Other problems with inhabiting Mars long terms also exist. For example, nutrition and food resources will be required to sustain colonization of Mars. In this regard, Musk has partnered with Impossible Foods for plant-based food production. While hydroponics will be used over time, transport of plants and animals will initially take place via the Starship. It is also unknown whether human beings can have children on Mars as well. Musk currently has medical researchers investigating this as well as bioengineers. In fact, he anticipates using bioengineering to cultivate human evolution to better tolerate Mars’ environment. As is evident, these problems with inhabiting Mars in a sustainable manner is overwhelming. But in each case, Musk is exploring solutions.
Shooting for Mars and the Stars
Reportedly, Musk began dreaming of the colonization of Mars ever since he was a boy. After reading Isaac Asimov’s 1951 novel Foundation, he envisioned a similar life’s course. In the sci-fi story, people escaped to Mars to preserve the best of humanity and its achievements. Given the impacts of climate change, the threat of nuclear weapons, and the rise of AI, fiction could become reality. Musk perhaps sees Mars as the solution to what otherwise may be inevitable on Earth. Or it may simply be another one of his over-the-top visions that drives him forward. In either case, Musk has yet to give up on the colonization of Mars. And therefore, we shouldn’t either.
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