Not so quietly, the face of the battlefield has changed over the last couple of years. Unmanned drones capable of executing precise military operations have become increasingly common. Whether part of the Ukrainian-Russian conflict, maritime trade sabotage, or targeted military attacks, the integration of drone-heavy tactics are increasing. At present, these attacks are not autonomous, but ones guided by human decision-making. However, the potential for AI-controlled killer drones now exists, and this could alter military landscapes substantially. In fact, AI-operated systems of drones could reset the global balance of power as we know it. Such developments may be just around the corner, and the outcome is something completely unpredictable.
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What makes things unpredictable about AI-controlled killer drones and drone fleets pertains to their cost. Compared to warships and other military weapons, drones are inexpensive. Thousands could be produced for the same price of a naval aircraft carrier or submarine. This enables countries and groups with fewer resources to get into the game. At the same time, autonomous military drones launched in vast numbers and managed by AI are low-cost strategies. With the right AI platform and drone numbers, any military groups might wreak havoc. Such circumstances have not yet arrived, but make no mistake, they’re just around the corner. This is simply just the latest in military weapon systems advancement, and one that has major global implications.
Escalating Drone Attacks in the Field
In recent months, there have been several notable drone attacks in key conflicts around the world. For some months, Houthi groups and allies have plagued the Gulf of Aden with drone attacks on shipping vessels. Designed to disrupt trade, these attacks have become quite a nuisance. Likewise, in late January, Iranian-developed drones killed three U.S. military members in Jordan in a small yet targeted attack. Though remote, the incident is worth noting. And farther north, Russia is feeling the effects. Ukrainian drones sunk the large Russian warship, Ivanovets. Worth $70 million, this was a major blow to Russian forces. In each case, the drones were unmanned, yet they weren’t autonomous military drones. But this is where there’s going to a major shift when it comes to drone warfare.
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The reason drones are being increasingly used on the battlefront is obvious. Using a drone to accomplish an attack is overwhelmingly preferred to using manned weapon systems. Likewise, compared to manned weapons such as battleships and aircraft, drones are incredibly affordable. The drones used in Jordan cost roughly $20,000 compared to millions or billions required for producing a warship. Now consider having these drones operated by AI systems rather than human ones. AI-controlled killer drones lower costs even further as autonomous military drones replace existing personnel. Thus, not only does military personnel safety encourage their use, so does cost factors. For these reasons, we’re only going to see military drone attacks increase in frequency.
Shifting from Drone Attacks to Drone Swarms
The events described thus far involve a relatively small number of drones in the attacks. Likewise, these drone missions are still overseen by human decision-makers. In defending against such attacks, it remains possible to fend off most threats through specific maneuvers. Military personnel use what’s known as the OODA loop to determine the best course of action in response. OODA stands for observe, orient, decide, and act, which describes the process for best decision responses. Performed by humans, this approach has been sufficient to date to ward off drones before major damage occurs. But this may no longer be the case once AI-controlled killer drones are utilized. These autonomous military drones could not only adjust to ongoing developments in flight or in motion. But they may also do so without the hindrance of human decision-making delays.
The other issue related to the shift from human-guided drones to AI-controlled killer drones relates to number. The attacks previously described involve smaller numbers of drones that can be readily managed from a defense perspective. But AI systems could launch and control thousands of drones at a time making this much more difficult. Referred to as drone swarms, these types of attacks could threaten some of the largest weapon systems in the world today. And being autonomous military drones, they could act decisively and quickly while recalculating and adjusting in real time. The difference maker in this regard is simply the inclusion of AI into the formula. Given AI’s massive calculating power, drone swarms are highly feasible. And based on the relatively low cost, AI platforms with drone and robot armies could be available to many. This is how AI as well as drones are likely to change the face of warfare.
The Human Factor
In considering AI-controlled killer drones and related systems, ethical issues are naturally important. For U.S. military leaders, there remains an insistence that human decision-making must be part of the process. Autonomous military drones may exist within such a structure, but the ultimate decision to strike needs to be made by leadership. This is a major reason why the military is pursuing brain-AI interfaces like Elon Musk’s Neuralink. Enhanced human decision-making in the field using AI would reflect a more ideal situation. This would not only improve oversight of drone swarms and AI-controlled drones. But it would also better prepare defenses against other autonomous military drones from attackers.
While U.S. leaders may insist on including human decision-making in the process, this does not mean others will. As a result, AI-controlled killer drones in swarms could move against a target without discretion. With only one goal in mind, eliminating a target, it would not necessarily take into account other variables and concerns. This is where a new global power structure might evolve. In addition to the most advanced AI platforms to manage autonomous military drones, those with lesser discretion may prevail. Given this, it appears a new weapons race now exists with nations competing for the best AI military systems. From robots, to drones, to other autonomous machines, we have entered into a new era of warfare. And AI will be managing the entire field in a short amount of time.
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